1-First, there is the country’s unfavorable demographic profile;2-Second, China needs to change its economic model. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping wisely switched China from Maoist autarky to the East Asian export-led growth model successfully pioneered by Japan and Taiwan. Today, however, China has outgrown the model and the tolerance of foreign governments that made it possible;3-Third, while China for more than three decades picked the low-hanging fruit of relatively easy reforms, the changes it needs now are much more difficult to introduce: an independent judiciary, rationalization of SOEs, and liberalization or elimination of the hukou system of residential registration, which limits mobility and fuels inequality. Moreover, Deng’s political reforms to separate the party and the state have been reversed by Xi;4-the fourth problem. Ironically, China has become a victim of its success. The Leninist model imposed by Mao in 1949 fit well with Chinese imperial tradition, but rapid economic development has changed China and its political needs. China has become an urban middle-class society, but its ruling elites remain trapped in circular political reasoning. They believe that only the Communist Party can save China and thus that any reforms must strengthen the Party’s monopoly on power;5-Finally, there is China’s soft-power deficit. Xi has proclaimed a “Chinese Dream” of a return to global greatness. As economic growth slows and social problems increase, the Party’s legitimacy will increasingly rest on such nationalist appeals.
- VIETNAM’S DILEMMAS
- SMART vs MAD MONEY
- VIETNAM & GEOECONOMICS
- DILEMMA N0.1: MÔ HÌNH PHÁT TRIỂN : VICIOUS CIRCLE : HOW TO GET OUT?
- DILEMMA N0.2: CÔNG HỮU VS TƯ HỮU ?
- DILEMMA N0.3:NATIONALISM VS GLOBALISM ?
- DILEMMA N0.4: GIÁO DỤC : DẠY LÀM NGƯỜI TỬ TẾ
- DILEMMA N0.5: ĐÀO TẠO : DẠY CÁCH LÀM GIÀU
- DILEMMA N0.6 :TRÍ THỨC VS CMCN 4.0 ?
- DILEMMA N0.7 : DÂN SỐ - CHƯA GIÀU ĐÃ GIÀ !
- Canh bạc 1: NGÂN HÀNG
- Canh bạc 2: BẤT ĐỘNG SẢN
- Canh bạc 3: THỊ TRƯỜNG VỐN: ĐẦU TƯ OR CỜ BẠC
- Canh bạc 4: DẦU + VÀNG + TỶ GIÁ + KIỀU HỐI + ODA !
- Canh bạc 5: NÔNG NGHIỆP
- Canh bạc 6 : CỞ SỞ HẠ TẦNG + ĐẶC KHU KINH TẾ + CÔNG NGHIỆP PHỤ TRỢ : HIỆN THỰC OR ẢO TƯỞNG ?
- Canh bạc 7 : TĂNG TRƯỞNG VS MÔI TRƯỜNG
- American Dream: An Example of Soft Power ?
- Chinese Dream: GOK ?
- Russia: A New Macondo ?
- India: A New Rising Asian Dragon?
- Japan: The lost decades since 1990 (失われた10年 - ushinawareta jūnen): How to get out ?
- EU :Too Big To Fall ?
- ASEAN: Agree or Disagree?
- SOUTH CHINA SEA
- BIỂN ĐÔNG HAY TRUNG ĐÔNG
- MIDDLE EAST
- INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS