TẦM NHÌN "ĐỊA-VĂN-CHÍNH-CÔNG-KINH"
QUYẾT ĐỊNH THÀNH CÔNG

I FORESEE TO WIN
NOTHING IS PERMANENT EXCEPT CHANGE

Chuyện gì sẽ xảy ra ở Thượng viện Mỹ hôm nay: Senate vote on trade looms big, but won't settle the debate (AP 12-5-15) -- Tại sao Obama có thể thua: Obama’s trade deal: Why he’s in danger of losing (WP 11-5-15)

·  Q&A: Barack Obama’s fight for fast-track authority (FT 12-5-15) -- Liên hệ đến Việt Nam: "The truth is opponents to fast-track authority are really preparing for a bigger fight this year over the TPP. They argue the TPP will only add to the problems thanks to the inclusion of countries such as Vietnam where average wages remain much lower than in the US."  Đấy, then chốt là ở chỗ lao động Mỹ sợ Việt Nam cướp việc làm của họ, "quan ngại về nhân quyền" chỉ là cái cớ của họ thôi! Cũng nên đọc bài này để thấy tại sao TPP lại dính đến "currency manipulation": Shinzo Abe, Barack Obama and the TPP: what you need to know (FT 28-4-15) -- Key reason: "The motor industry — and Ford in particular — has been leading a push to have provisions included in the TPP that would punish currency manipulation, something Detroit has long accused Japan of. ... Such a provision is unlikely to feature in the TPP. Japan and other countries would rather walk away than sign on to anything containing such language. But the currency push means Mr Obama’s negotiators have to be seen to be doing everything they can to defend the car industry"  Obama ở thế kẹt: Nếu gắn TPP với currency manipulation thì Nhật (và nhiều nước khác) sẽ "rút lui" khỏi TPP lập tức, mà nếu tách hai chuyện này ra thì làm phật lòng mấy công ty ô tô của Mỹ. Ý của THD: Nên tách ra!  Chính Bộ trưởng Thương mại Mỹ Penny Pritzker cũng nói: TPP là chuyện thương mại, còn chống currency manipulation là nhiệm vụ của Bộ Ngân Khố, đừng nhập chung hai chuyện này rồi hai Bộ dẫm chân lên nhau, lộn xộn lắm! Harry Reid (và những người chống TPP) thì lại sợ nếu tách hai chuyện này ra, bỏ phiếu riêng, thì TPP sẽ lọt, còn (luật chống) currency manipulation sẽ không lọt, cho nên họ mới nói với Obama: Nếu ông muốn tụi tui ủng hộ TPP thì phải cho luật chống currency manipulation vào chung một bó!)

·  Thư ngỏ của dân biểu Sandy Levin gửi những người "tiến bộ" về TPP: An Open Letter to Progressives: TPP Is Not Yet 'The Most Progressive Trade Agreement in History' (HuffPost 11-5-15) -- Có một đoạn dài về Việt Nam: "2. Vietnam is different. It is a command economy where the only labor union is an organ of the communist Party. It is naïve not to acknowledge that allowing workers to organize and form independent unions -- freedom of association, a central and basic international right -- is in direct opposition to the Vietnam regime and will therefore be very difficult to make real. On a recent trip to Vietnam, I met a woman who had been thrown in jail for four years for trying to organize workers. We cannot simply have the right written obligation in the Agreement and expect that some future dispute settlement panel is going to ensure meaningful changes on the ground for workers. The administration refuses to make available to Members of Congress the recent "consistency plan" they are discussing with Vietnam so that we can evaluate the changes to Vietnamese laws and practices they are seeking. But, from what I understand, the plan will fall far short of bringing Vietnam into compliance with basic ILO standards, as required under the May 10th Agreement. For example, the plan will not explicitly provide that Vietnam must allow industry-wide unions to form -- because Vietnam refuses to acknowledge that fundamental right. Our negotiators also refused to accept our suggestion that an independent panel be established from the beginning to ensure compliance with the labor obligations and expedite a dispute. Without such a structure, future cases will need to be built from scratch by outside groups and submitted to the U.S. government, a process which has taken several years for the Department of Labor to act on in Honduras and Guatemala. The president said recently that Vietnam "would even have to protect workers' freedom to form unions -- for the first time." But the TPP that USTR is negotiating is far from ensuring that those words are real."

·  Các thỏa hiệp thương mại cho các đại công ty quyền ăn hiếp các nước bé: Trade Deals Are Giving Corporations the Power to Intimidate Tiny Countries (New Republic 11-5-15) -- REALLY?  I haven't thought of this!

 

Tin mới nhất về TPP ở Quốc hội Mỹ: Obama thua: Senate Democrats Block Progress on Obama’s Trade Authority (NYT 12-5-15) Senate Democrats vote to block Obama on trade (WP 12-5-15) Senate Democrats Block Debate on Obama’s Fast-Track Bill (WSJ 12-5-15) --  Obama Loses the First Battle of the Democratic Trade War (Atlantic 12-5-15)

 Remarks by the President on Trade (Whitehouse 8-5-15)

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