TẦM NHÌN "ĐỊA-VĂN-CHÍNH-CÔNG-KINH"
QUYẾT ĐỊNH THÀNH CÔNG

I FORESEE TO WIN
NOTHING IS PERMANENT EXCEPT CHANGE

1-The biggest macroeconomic challenge facing Vietnam today is sustaining growth. Most doi moi-era growth has resulted either from efficiency gains associated with the introduction of a market economy (opening domestic markets and trade, relaxing restrictions on labour movement and land transactions) or from expanded endowments of low-skill labour and capital. GDP continues to grow at a very respectable rate, albeit lower than that projected in national planning documents.

2-But the warning signs for future growth are clear:

+ a low (29 per cent) contribution of total factor productivity growth to total growth;

+ underwhelming growth rates of human capital;

+ persistent budget deficits and increasing public sector debt;

+ and a seeming loss of will to press ahead with the reform agenda.

3-Vietnam’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) contribute to each of these problems and, as such, continue to prevent the country from realising its full growth potential.

+ With privileged access to credit from the 

state-owned commercial banks

 

, SOEs continue to absorb 49 per cent of investment despite creating only a tiny share of new jobs and contributing almost nothing to export earnings.

+ As a group, they are hugely inefficient: their average capital productivity, to take just one metric,
is roughly half that of non-state industries;

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